Why Bangladesh risks becoming the next Lebanon or Syria!

Raju Korti
I have been watching Bangladesh with growing unease. The country, always simmering with tension, now seems frighteningly close to boiling over. What is unfolding there has all the makings of a prolonged crisis -- one that threatens to push the nation into the kind of protracted instability we've seen in Lebanon or Syria. The parallels are uncomfortable, and the consequences, especially for India, are potentially grave.

At the centre of this political maelstrom is Muhammad Yunus, the interim chief tasked with guiding the country through its transition. I don’t envy his position. He is a Nobel laureate, a symbol of integrity, but that hardly shields him from the storm he is caught in. In fact, I am told that not too long ago, he came close to resigning -- overwhelmed by opposition pressures, growing distrust, and the creeping dominance of the military. That moment of hesitation spoke volumes about the fragility of the current setup.

Muhammad Yunus Wikipedia grab

It is not just about Yunus’s personal struggle. It is about the ground shifting beneath him. The army, led by General Waker-uz-Zaman, has taken on a more assertive, if not controlling, role. His recent “Darbar” with top commanders wasn’t just a routine briefing. By all accounts, it was a signal that the military is no longer content staying behind the scenes. The general’s blunt warnings against foreign interference and his refusal to entertain proposals like a humanitarian corridor through Myanmar’s Rakhine state speak to a deeper suspicion of external agendas. When the foreign secretary was abruptly shown the door with no explanation, many saw it as the military tightening its grip -- and Yunus being edged out of key decisions.

Meanwhile, the streets are barely holding it together. The mass protests that ousted Sheikh Hasina in July last year have splintered and hardened. What began as a democratic outcry now threatens to spiral into street anarchy. Groups aligned with Yunus, including the National Citizen Party, are still pushing back, promising to “fight on all fronts.” But that rhetoric carries its own risks. It stirs memories of the violent mob that overran Dhanmondi 32. Once mobs are emboldened, control becomes an illusion.

The opposition is not easing up either. The Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) accuses Yunus of dragging his feet on elections. They want polls by December. His camp, on the other hand, floats June 2026 -- a timeline that’s already clashing with General Waker’s demands for swift elections. Every decision now feels like a potential trigger. It is not a question of if something will snap -- but when.

From India’s standpoint, this is not a fire it can afford to ignore. A destabilized Bangladesh could send refugee flows spilling across the border, rattle trade routes, and offer an opening for regional powers with their own agendas. Sheikh Hasina’s banned Awami League may be out of official politics, but her loyalists still have networks, and they could easily stir unrest if they sense India’s hand in propping up the current setup. General Waker’s defiant stand against the Myanmar corridor is not just about logistics. It is a warning against any perceived meddling.

Yunus, to his credit, has momentarily shelved his resignation. It appears he is clinging to the belief that dialogue can still calm the storm, but time is running out. The uneasy peace is already threadbare.

What’s at stake is not just Bangladesh’s democratic future. It is the very structure of its society. A nation where mobs and the military become the final arbiters of power is one teetering on the edge of state failure. And for India, a neighbour hurtling towards chaos isn’t just bad news. It is a ticking time bomb.