Afghanistan as an unexpected ally in a shifting South Asian chessboard

Raju Korti
It feels almost surreal. A moment I couldn’t have imagined two decades ago when wrote on the IC-814 hijacking saga, watching India buckle under pressure as Taliban gunmen loomed large over Kandahar airport. Back then, New Delhi and Kabul were forced into a brittle, reluctant conversation. Fast forward to today, and the script has flipped. The Taliban’s own foreign minister is now dialling up New Delhi to condemn terrorism, extend support, and -- perhaps most significantly -- call out Pakistan’s lies. Geopolitics, truly, has a twisted sense of irony.

Since the chaotic withdrawal of the US from Afghanistan and the Taliban’s return to power, India has navigated this complex terrain with a quiet pragmatism. No dramatic photo-ops, no grandstanding. Just cautious engagement, a revived humanitarian presence, and critical backchannel diplomacy. And now, in the aftermath of India's robust response to the Pahalgam terror strike, even the Taliban-led Kabul has spoken in India’s favour. This is not just a diplomatic win; it's a strategic repositioning in South Asia.

Make no mistake. Afghanistan’s overt support is a calculated snub to Pakistan. Islamabad, long used to calling the shots in Kabul, now finds its influence eroding. It had once shaped Afghan policy, harboured militant networks, and used Afghan territory to its advantage in the Kashmir playbook. That script is fraying, and New Delhi is penning the sequel.

The Taliban, despite its ideological rigidity, is no longer a monolith dancing to Pakistan's tune. Afghanistan’s own experience with terror groups has taught it the price of strategic depth gone rogue. Add to that the Taliban’s search for international legitimacy, economic assistance, and infrastructural support -- all areas where India has historical goodwill and leverage. From roads and dams to wheat and vaccines, India’s quiet investments in Afghan society have yielded long-term dividends.

More urgently, Afghanistan today faces a restive east, but a simmering west. Balochistan. Pakistan’s Achilles’ heel. India doesn’t need to overtly stir the pot; the alignment of Afghan sympathy with Baloch yearning for autonomy could become a natural extension of anti-Pakistani sentiment in the region. If Kabul and the Baloch nationalists begin seeing common cause -- not in ideology, but in resistance to Pakistani overreach -- it could redraw South Asia’s conflict contours.

A New Delhi-Kabul understanding, even if informal, opens up a second front for Islamabad to worry about -- not in terms of direct conflict, but in intelligence, optics, and diplomatic pressure. Afghanistan’s endorsement of India’s anti-terror narrative undermines Pakistan’s “victimhood” strategy at global forums. It gives India a voice in Kabul without boots on the ground. It creates space for cooperation in counterterrorism, intelligence sharing, and regional security.

For India, this is the moment to play long. Engage Kabul with development aid, build educational and healthcare bridges, offer technical support -- all while keeping diplomatic contact lines open, even with a Taliban regime. Afghanistan, desperate to diversify its alliances and escape Pakistan’s economic chokehold, could find in India not just a benefactor, but a balancing partner.

If India continues to build strategic empathy in Afghanistan while amplifying Baloch voices in multilateral forums, the region’s centre of gravity could shift. The idea of an Afghanistan-Balochistan axis -- loosely aligned by a shared resistance to Pakistani domination -- might sound ambitious, but it’s not implausible. Political geography is often shaped by emotional cartography.

And as Pakistan reels under internal instability, international distrust, and economic meltdown, New Delhi’s quiet, confident diplomacy is scripting a new regional narrative. One in which Afghanistan, once a liability, may emerge as India’s most unexpected -- and perhaps most potent -- strategic lever.

History rarely offers second chances. But when it does, India must play not just with restraint, but with foresight. Because this time, Kabul is listening. And Islamabad is watching.