Monsoon before its time: My theory in Climate Physics!

Raju Korti
As a keen follower of Climate Physics (this is my coinage), I often find myself drawn into the fascinating interplay of atmosphere, ocean, and land. What once felt like an abstract science has become an urgent and everyday reality, especially in a country like ours, where a shift in the monsoon's mood can change everything from harvests to headlines. People have an abiding interest in the weather -- whether it's for farming, commuting, or just planning a weekend -- but what lies beneath these patterns is a subject both deeply complex and endlessly captivating. It is this very intersection of curiosity and consequence that compels me to look deeper.

(Pic representational)

The early arrival of the southwest monsoon over Kerala -- nearly a week ahead of schedule and the earliest in the last 35 years -- is more than a meteorological footnote. It is a climate signal, loud and insistent, that deserves close scrutiny. This anomalous onset, swiftly followed by widespread thunderstorm activity across the country and intense rain spells in Mumbai, suggests shifts in regional climate dynamics that are both intriguing and unsettling. As the Bharat Forecast System (BFS) -- a fully indigenous, high-resolution weather forecasting model -- becomes operational, India’s ability to interpret these shifts with greater precision comes not a moment too soon.

From the standpoint of Climate Physics, an early monsoon is often the product of an unusual warming pattern in the Indian Ocean, accelerated atmospheric convection, and a low-pressure zone forming earlier than expected. This year, oceanic temperatures have shown sharp spikes, with the Arabian Sea particularly warm. That’s not just a statistic -- it’s energy. Warm oceans feed moisture into the monsoon system and can trigger both beneficial rains and devastating extremes, depending on how this energy is released. In Mumbai’s case, the city received a taste of that excess with sudden, high-intensity rainfall that waterlogged roads and stalled urban life -- not yet officially in the monsoon period, but already in its shadow.

From a water security perspective, an early monsoon could be a blessing. Dams and reservoirs, especially those supplying drinking water to parched metros like Mumbai, stand to benefit from the extended recharge period. A longer rainy season also holds promise for agriculture -- if the rainfall is well-distributed. That’s the operative phrase. Agriculture thrives not just on quantity but on the timing and spatial spread of rains. A premature deluge followed by dry spells, or unseasonal heavy downpours, could disrupt sowing cycles and destroy young crops. The real danger lies in this erraticism: rains arriving too early or too forcefully upset the delicate rhythm rural India depends on.

Moreover, climate volatility increases the risk of hydrological disasters. Landslides in hilly regions, urban flooding in cities like Mumbai, and a higher likelihood of pre-monsoon cyclones -- these are no longer rare events. The Indian subcontinent, surrounded by two dynamic seas, is increasingly vulnerable to ocean-driven extreme weather events. The onset of the monsoon has often coincided with cyclonic activity, and with warmer seas, cyclones can intensify faster and landfall with greater fury. In this context, the Bharat Forecast System’s rollout could be a turning point. With a six-kilometre resolution, BFS can detect weather changes at sub-block levels, allowing for hyperlocal alerts — critical for evacuation planning, crop insurance schemes, and infrastructure response.

What makes Mumbai’s situation particularly complex is the city’s classic monsoon paradox: its survival depends on the rains, but the rains can also cripple it. The BMC and allied civic bodies have begun their usual pre-monsoon drills -- desilting of major drains, checking of pumping stations, and deployment of flood-response teams -- but history suggests that execution often falters under pressure. If May’s rain is a trailer, the coming weeks demand a heightened level of preparedness, not just protocol. Urban flood resilience, powered by early warnings and swift citizen communication, must become as routine as pothole repairs.

So, what does this early monsoon mean? It means a longer season of hope -- and hazard. It means farmers may gain crucial watering time, but also face a more erratic rainfall pattern. It means cities will fill their reservoirs faster but risk being drowned in the process. Above all, it means India must now treat climate as a live-wire issue -- not distant, not abstract, but immediate and immensely physical. In the age of supercomputers and satellites, the monsoon is still a mystery we must prepare for, not just predict.