Raju Korti
When the world has become a
headquarter of all geopolitical hotspots, its branch offices, by default, also have to vie for the attention and importance they desperately seek. I am
referring to Balochistan which expectedly turned into a fire from a frying pan when it found the opportune time .
The
largest province, not to speak of its mineral-rich terrain, has deteriorated
sharply, marked by coordinated, series of assaults from the Balochistan
Liberation Army (BLA), leaving hundreds of civilians, security personnel and
militants dead in the last two months. By all accounts, this is the fiercest
stage of their uprising encompassing 14 cities amidst claims and
counter-claims, pushing the region to a potential collapse.
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| (The green hotspot) |
Pakistani forces, as
only expected, have responded with counter-measures to smother the BLA attacks
but the damages are also beyond military operations, spilling over to hit
essential services like internet and electricity. In the run up to the
Balochistan’s case for self-determination, what strikes me is the strange
situation Pakistan finds itself in. It is poetic justice if an antidote is
served to you for the very poison you spread. This is what will result. Later if
not sooner.
True to Pakistan’s political posturing, where confessions are usually
made later in the day, Defence Minister Khwaja Asif's candid admission in the
National Assembly highlights the core challenges and establishment’s
helplessness: Balochistan's vast geography, spanning over 347,000 square
kilometers, makes it a "gigantic task" to manage, especially compared
to more densely policed provinces like Punjab and Sindh.
There is an obvious
resigned note in Asif’s submission. The insurgents' advantage in terrain, their
possession of advanced weaponry while Pakistani security forces face shortages
of comparable gear. That this escalation stems from longstanding grievances
rooted in economic exploitation and political marginalisation is already known.
Balochistan
holds immense mineral wealth, including 5.9 billion tons of copper-gold ore and
untapped rare earth elements potentially worth 6-8 trillion dollars, yet locals
receive only 2 percent royalties from mining deals. Enforced disappearances,
poverty, and the perception of the province as "collective property"
mismanaged by Islamabad fuel separatist sentiment.
The insurgency, mostly in the
form of skirmishes, has been ongoing since the 1940s following Balochistan's
contested accession to Pakistan. It has, however, evolved into a low-scale but
persistent conflict involving nationalist groups demanding autonomy or
independence. The reason is not far to seek. What has flared up the issue is
the recent violence disrupting key projects like the China-Pakistan Economic
Corridor (CPEC), threatening Beijing's investments and prompting fears that
instability could spill over into neighbouring regions.
For all their professed
bravado, as is its wont, Pakistan's military, already stretched by economic
woes and threats in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, appears handicapped, with Asif's
remarks signalling a crisis of resources and strategy. Then there are
predictable accusations of backing from Afghanistan and India, but these only serve
to deflect from internal failures. Or so Baloch activist Mir Yar Baloch
believes.
Pakistan's response reveals a trajectory toward resignation rather
than resolution. Security operations continue, with over 200 militants
reportedly killed in retaliatory actions, yet the insurgency's decentralised,
networked tactics, hit-and-run assaults, propaganda via satellite uplinks, and
transnational linkages, evade traditional control.
The state's writ has eroded
to the point where military patrols avoid nighttime operations in 80 percent of
the province, and attacks have reached government secretariats. Chief Minister
Sarfraz Bugti's assertion that solutions lie with the military rather than
dialogue further entrenches alienation, as enforced disappearances and human
rights abuses drive youth, women, and elders into the fray.
It needs no expert
view as this deadlock leaves the conflict stalled on the battlefield. It is not
altogether surprising that there have been no territorial gains but only rising
fatalities, reported at whopping 60 percent increase in incidents in 2025
alone. Islamabad has lived up to its well-guarded reputation of living in denial;
economic strain be damned. It only points to a creeping acceptance of
diminished control, risking provincial fragmentation if unrest persists.
Anything
that happens or concerns Pakistan, India cannot be kept out anywhichways.
Wittingly or unwittingly, India occupies a pivotal yet cautious position in
these dynamics. Baloch leaders, including Mir Yar Baloch, president of the Free
Balochistan Movement, have repeatedly appealed for New Delhi's moral,
political, diplomatic, and economic support, viewing India as a counterweight
to Pakistan's occupation since 1948.Mir Yar Baloch has emphasised mutual
benefits in technology, economy, and peace, while rejecting accusations of
Indian backing as Pakistani propaganda to cover failures. This probably hurts
Pakistan more than the Baloch uprising per se. Baloch claims his forces could
liberate the province in a week with fighter jets and weapons, and has invited
international scrutiny, including from India, to expose alleged abuses like
mosque bombardments and mass graves. Notably, same suicide bomber practices
that have become popular after the LTTE gave it international recognition. No
surprises that Pakistan, in turn, accuses India of sponsoring terrorism, with
Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi citing evidence of support for Baloch militants.
However, these claims lack independent verification and align with Islamabad's
pattern of externalising blame.
For India it is a tricky and cautious situation
where engagement must balance strategic interests with risks. The insurgency
threatens CPEC, a Chinese initiative India opposes due to its passage through
disputed territories, potentially weakening Pakistan's western flank and
diverting its military focus from the eastern border. Yet direct involvement
could escalate tensions, inviting accusations of interference and straining
relations with global powers wary of regional balkanisation.
A "Greater
Balochistan" narrative, encompassing parts of Iran and Afghanistan, adds
complexity, as US strikes on Iran could further destabilise the area, creating
ungoverned spaces that benefit militants and endanger Central Asia. India
should prioritise non-military avenues: amplify Baloch voices in international
forums like the UN, push for investigations into human rights violations, and
offer humanitarian aid through multilateral channels. Economically, fostering
ties with Baloch diaspora and exploring post-conflict partnerships in resources
could position India favourably, but only if pursued diplomatically to avoid
direct confrontation. Supporting dialogue between Islamabad and Baloch
representatives, while condemning violence, would align with India's democratic
ethos and long-term stability goals in South Asia. Much will depend on the walk
India talks.
I suspect, in the final analysis, India's restraint could pressure
Pakistan toward concessions, preventing a full surrender but that might only invite
broader chaos.