The climate clock Is ticking louder but we aren’t listening!

Raju Korti
Let me say this upfront: the 1.5°C warming target -- that golden line we were told not to cross -- may be breached in just three years. Not 30. Not even 10. Three. That is not fear-mongering. That is cold, scientific calculation from a group of over 60 top climate scientists, based on hard data, not hype. If that doesn’t jolt you, perhaps this will: we have already used up 90% of our carbon budget, and at our current rate of carbon emissions -- over 42 billion metric tons per year -- we’ll use up the rest by early 2028. That is precisely the point where science says we are essentially locked in to a 1.5°C warmer world. Beyond that, things get ugly.

There is a reason why this 1.5°C number matter. Because it is not just a number. It is the threshold between disruption and disaster. That is the temperature rise since pre-industrial times that scientists believe could push us over into widespread, irreversible climate chaos -- stronger storms, severe droughts, deadly heatwaves, rising seas, and massive losses in agriculture. We are already at 1.24°C, and warming at a rate of 0.27°C per decade. That’s like watching floodwaters rise inch by inch and still thinking you have time to pack your bags and run.

Earth: From the frying pan into the fire!

Here is my physics and maths behind the panic: Earth is now trapping 25% more heat than it did just a decade ago. Picture a thickening thermal blanket wrapping around the planet -- mostly caused by the burning of coal, oil, and gas -- and you will get the idea. About 90% of this heat is getting stored in the oceans, quietly melting glaciers, raising sea levels (already up 228 mm since 1900) and bleaching coral reefs. It may not look catastrophic yet, but ask anyone living in coastal cities or drought-hit farms and they will tell you: the climate isn't waiting politely for 2100. It is already ringing the doorbell.

What is particularly frightening is how fast the window is closing. Just last year, scientists gave us a bit more time. Now, they’ve updated the math, and it is worse. We are not just off track; we are accelerating in the wrong direction.

It is not just my case that the implications are profound, because once that 1.5°C threshold is crossed, we are not just talking about warmer summers – we are looking at up to 40% crop yield losses in key global breadbaskets like the US, China, and Russia, amplified drought and water stress which already affected 30% of the world’s land in 2022, sea-level rise that could engulf small island nations and low-lying coastal cities. Worst of all, the triggering of climate tipping points like the collapse of ice sheets or the dieback of the Amazon rainforest that can set off self-reinforcing feedback loops -- the climate equivalent of a planetary fever spiraling into a coma.

There is, of course, hope but it comes with a deadline. Scientists say emissions must peak this decade -- meaning, within the next 5 years -- and then fall sharply. That means ramping up wind, solar, and other renewables, cutting fossil fuel subsidies, electrifying everything from cars to stoves, and, perhaps hardest of all, changing the way we consume and think about growth.

And that is the catch: physics doesn’t negotiate. Politics can stall, markets can wobble, but the laws of thermodynamics won’t bend it like Beckham. If we keep burning, the planet keeps heating. Period.

This isn’t about saving the Earth. Earth will spin on for millennia. It’s about saving us -- our cities, food, economies, and future generations from the climate we've already begun to unravel.

The Paris Agreement wasn’t just a diplomatic nicety. It was a lifeline. Now that line is fraying and if we wait till 2028 to act decisively, it might just snap.

The countdown isn’t abstract. It’s physical. It’s measurable. And it is now.