Of predictable fatwas and Russian footprints in Afghanistan.

Raju Korti
Having watched all the ferment in the land-locked country ever since the Soviets occupied it end 1979, I have come to the conclusion that Afghanistan continues and will continue to run around in circles. The plot has moved along predictable lines. The much coined Taliban 2.0 is not going to be any different from the Taliban 1.0. When you are talking of a medieval mindset that harks you back to more than 1500 years, the entire discourse refuses to change one bit.

A lot many commentators have let their imagination go on a cruise trying to make out a case that the violent outfit appears to be softening as it assumes control but the steadfast submission to the Sharia leaves them with no room for flexibility. The so called press conference that its apparently rational sounding elements took was an eyewash. Their accommodation for what is being sought to be conveyed as a meltdown from its earlier primitive posturing has come a cropper. Developments in the last couple of days is perhaps just a trailer of the bigger picture that is inevitably set to unfold.

Later than sooner, the first edict is out. After talking tall about women's rights, the Taliban has taken its first somersault, banning co-education in universities because it is the "root of all evils in the society". It also wants "virtuous female lecturers would be allowed to teach only female students, not the male ones. That should make you wonder who is that Taliban doesn't trust -- men or women. Beyond all that lip service, the Taliban has dropped enough hints that women are only meant to lie under men's bodies and cater to their baser instincts. Mind you, they are their own women! If they are going to kill women indiscriminately for not obeying their diktats, who the hell would they be left with to carry out their brutal legacy? With women hiding behind their veils and faced with relentless despotism, it is effectively the end of education for women. Expect more such oppressive fatwas in the time to come.

While nothing that the Taliban has done or gone about has any element of surprise, it is slightly unexpected that the Russians appear to have taken in their stride the Taliban resurgence. The Russian diplomats believe the people in charge as 'normal guys" and Afghanistan is safer than ever before. This is obviously a take off on Moscow's new stance that the take-over in Afghanistan is a reality that they must attune to. It is a complete anti-thesis of what all it did during its occupation of Kabul to prop up a Communist regime.

While the western countries have frantically tried to evacuate its people and embassies, Russia has chosen to stay put with a certificate that clears Taliban of any reprisals. In fact going one step further, the Putin dispensation sees a bright future of national reconciliation that spells end to political uncertainty and bloodshed. Putin's special envoy to Afghanistan opened the doors to a new equation saying the Taliban as being easier to negotiate than with the old puppet regime of the now exiled President Ashraf Ghani. Just as the NATO found it incompatible to deal with the puppet government the erstwhile Soviets had installed before they chose to exit the theatre.

Somewhere in this change of heart, where Moscow has preferred to use the term "radicals" instead of addressing the Taliban as "terrorists",it has not rushed to recognize Taliban as rulers. It has been trying to build bridges with the Taliban in the last three years in an obvious diversion from its earlier foreign policy. That hasn't gone down well with the West. Looked at from the ground reality, the West and the Communists have changed postures but in terms of their hostile posturing, everything is status quo. In the new algorithm Russia is indicating that while it is ready to come to terms with the mutations in Afghanistan, it is not ready yet to throw full dice, preferring the picture to emerge clearer.        

There is a plausible reason to understand why the Russians have been resilient. It visualizes no military role for itself after realizing that the war it fought in the 80s was futile. They miscalculated the wages of the 1979 invasion. It cost them over nine years and 20,000 army men to prop up a regime besides turning into an international pariah. The Soviet economy just couldn't hold on, nor could its states that were destined to balkanize. The exit was unceremonious and Afghanistan went from frying pan into the fire. My gut feeling is the Russians didn't anticipate the Taliban's sweep to the power and is making just those initial noises. I will not be surprised if they are biding time until they find out the real shape of things to come. As new rulers, Taliban doesn't leave much room except for some speculation.

That brings me to the basic question. Do the Talibanese have any ideas about governance beyond the  setting up of a Caliphate? At the cost of hazarding a guess, I think not. They may impose the Sharia that has limited takers in the present matrix. That will not work in the longer run if they have any thoughts about salvaging their ruined economy or if they want to acquire some leeway on the international negotiating tables. While there are reports that the Northern Alliance is rolling up sleeves again to fight the Taliban in their own backyard, the latter has a lot of hard work to do.

The war and strife are far from over. It could well be the beginning of even more hazardous times for Afghanistan.