Axis, angles and shifting sands; global ties on a rollercoaster!

Raju Korti
I wake up each day to a map that has shifted overnight. The English weather looks steady by comparison. Alliances bend. Old enmities soften for a moment and then harden again. The last year has been a masterclass in churn. The result is a global order that is more fluid and more brittle at the same time.

Start with Washington. Donald Trump is back in the White House. That one fact alone resets many dials at once. His second term has already brought sharp rhetoric at home and a punchy posture abroad. He has weighed in on China and Russia with the usual mix of praise, warning and provocation. Only yesterday he said he was disappointed with Vladimir Putin even as he played down the China Russia embrace. The signal is mixed by design. It keeps friends guessing and rivals off balance.

Moscow is still at war. Ukraine bleeds. The front ebbs and flows. Drones, missiles and artillery define the rhythm of days. Russia probes for advantage while Kyiv absorbs pressure and strikes back. Today’s battlefield reads like yesterday’s and yet the numbers keep climbing. Independent trackers and daily situation reports show a grind with occasional bursts of movement and a steady rain of long-range hits. That grind shapes energy flows, defence budgets and public patience far from the trenches.

Now layer in Beijing. China hosts pageantry and partners. It courts Moscow on energy and technology while managing an economy weighed down by property woes.

Evergrande’s long unwind tells its own story. Creditors wait. Confidence wobbles. The state smooths edges but does not erase losses. Markets read that as caution from the top and fragility below. The geopolitical message is simple. China projects calm power even as it paddles hard under the water. Then the triangle of Washington, Moscow and Beijing meets the arc from New Delhi to Islamabad. India plays long game realpolitik. It deepens technology and defence ties with the United States. It keeps its energy lifeline with Russia alive on price and volume. It competes and cooperates with China depending on the file. That balancing act has grown harder in recent weeks. Think sanctions overhangs. Think trade frictions. Think a sharper American tone when India hunts for cheap barrels. The logic in Delhi is clear. Strategic autonomy is not a slogan. It is a daily spreadsheet.

Pakistan tries to steady itself under Shehbaz Sharif. The coalition is broad. The economy is tight. Security threats chew bandwidth. Islamabad looks to Beijing for projects and to Washington for trade relief where it can get it. Every move is constrained by politics at home and debt math on the table. The room for manoeuvre is narrow but not closed. Across the wider chessboard, clubs and coalitions keep morphing. NATO grew when Sweden joined in March 2024. That was a clear line drawn after Russia’s invasion. On the other side, BRICS added new members and even new partners. Indonesia’s entry this year, after last year’s wave from West Asia and Africa, gave fresh weight to talk of a multipolar world. Labels aside, the hard test is delivery. Can alternative blocks clear payments, insure cargoes and settle disputes at speed. That is where theory meets practice.

Leaders add their own theatre. Trump and Putin have traded compliments and criticism in equal measure. The tone changes by the week and sometimes by the hour. Trump salutes Xi one day and needles him the next. Media and experts feast on each swing. Op-eds frame it as strategy. Others call it improvisation. Think tanks urge pressure on Moscow. They also warn against treating every rival camp as a single monolith. I read them all and then return to the scoreboard of actions and outcomes.

What does all this churn mean in practice. Three things stand out.

First, deterrence now travels with discounts. Energy, chips and critical minerals sit at the heart of diplomacy. Russia offers deeper crude discounts to keep India in the buyer’s queue as sanctions bite. China courts commodity security and export control relief through side deals and summit optics. The price at which a barrel moves says as much about the war as any communiqué.

Second, alignments are broad but not deep. The China Russia North Korea embrace has grown tighter on paper with new treaties and talk of mutual help. Yet even there, caveats abound. Analysts note the limits of trust and capacity. Reports point to North Korean personnel heading to Russia in support roles, not front-line combat, which is telling. It shows Moscow needs manpower elasticity, while Pyongyang seeks relevance and aid. It is alignment by necessity, not destiny.

Third, middle powers act like system managers. India hedges across capitals. The Gulf states arbitrage energy and logistics. Turkey brokers talks when it suits. Southeast Asia adds BRICS heft while keeping the United States close. This is not fence sitting. It is risk management in a world of sudden gusts.Experts and media have had a field day. Some frame the moment as the rise of a new axis. Others insist it is a messy marketplace of deals. Brookings calls this a challenging moment for India United States ties with many frictions breaking at once. Atlantic Council voices push the White House to bear down harder on Putin. The split in prescriptions is the point. It reflects a global order with too many moving parts for one neat narrative.

Where do I land. I see a world that rewards speed and punishes rigidity. Trump’s Washington runs hot and cold by design. Putin’s Moscow seeks relief and time. Xi’s Beijing wants stability at home and leverage abroad. Modi’s New Delhi wants freedom of choice at scale. Ukraine fights for survival and sovereignty. Pakistan searches for oxygen. Markets mark every tremor in oil, freight and metals. Culture and society absorb the shocks through inflation, migration and a new edge in public discourse.

Now you know why I have kept my short. Almost like in a school-boyish essay. The map will move again tomorrow. Maybe by this evening. My only safe bet is that the political mercury will keep misbehaving. And that we will all keep learning to read it faster.