Raju Korti
All those wondering about the continued Chinese threats of a military conflict against India in the wake of Sikkim stand-off, I have borne this before. The Chinese do not issue empty threats. This posturing has worked against Americans right from the days of Richard Nixon but this time, the stage is South-East Asia and despite the Chinese wielding a considerable amount of influence in Sri Lanka, Nepal and Pakistan, India hasn't blinked -- far cry from the memories of that disastrous war in 1962.
With the exception of Pakistan, the other countries have not exactly fallen in line and they still consider India as big brother given the history. Apparently, the Chinese are trying to tackle India by also diminishing its influence in the neighbourhood. So it is not about military confrontation alone. In Bhutan, the borders are not properly demarcated and Doklam is one such contentious area. In all probability this dispute is in for a long haul.For the first time I discern that while a war hysteria has been whipped up by the Chinese, something that Indian people are hugely concerned in the shadow of history, the Indian government has chosen to play it down by not responding in the same measure. The Chinese, true to their style, have quickly massed their troops along the border and although New Delhi denies any such build-up in retaliation, there are unconfirmed reports that the army is not taking the Chinese threat lying down.
There is a school of thought that says China cannot afford a military confrontation because there is a huge market for their goods in India which means that economic considerations over-rule the compulsions of a war. If a war breaks out Doklam will provide the Chinese with a dominant ground by taking the strategic India, China, Bhutan tri-junction. If and when that happens, the Reds will be dangerously close because the corridor would connect them with North-East from where the Indian border is just 30 kms away. Of course, China has a track record of going ahead with its expansionist policies even in the midst of diplomatic moves. Remember when Xi came to India and was talking to Modi, Chinese troops had made inroads into Ladakh. Read it with the situation in 1962 when China attacked India in the thick of Hindi-Chini-bhai-bhai hoopla.
There seems to be a lot of confusion about the way Indian government is responding to the crisis. The issue is bound to come up with the country's National Security advisor in Beijing. Much depends on how the governments deals with the situation at the diplomatic level because despite the much touted improved capacity of the Army, the fact remains that it still is a lopsided comparison. What goes in India's favour is that there is some political upheaval in China and it cannot do more than raising a full scale war bogey. That gives India some breathing time. There is also a feeling among the Chinese people that Xi is just trying to cash in on raising nationalism as public sentiment like Modi is doing in India. I foresee only skirmishes and not a war at least until September. Besides, the Indian Army is well prepared this time and they would be no pushovers as they were five decades back.
The Chinese have a 70 billion dollar business with India which is a huge deterrent but China believes in muscle flexing more than its external economic compulsions. As for the army might, the Chinese are an untested force. They haven't fought a war as against India which is more war-tuned given the Pakistan factor and the military drills it conducts across many countries. However, there are several imponderables in the situation from which it is difficult to predict if there would be a war.
Until then there will be a war between hostility and diplomacy.
On the positive side, this is what I wrote barely a year back.
If there is one thing that you got to give it to the ruthlessly pushy Chinese, it is their clear perceptions in not mixing bilateral trade with security issues. So even as Prime Minister Narendra Modi carries forward his investment caravan by hosting the incumbent President Xi Jinping with Khaman Dhokla and Won Ton soup for the starters, there is a reasonable sense of optimism that the country's creaking infrastructure will get a much needed boost from this new-found engagement.
Naysayers will, of course, be quick to harp on China's past record in treachery as also its meagre investments post-2000 but much water has flown under the bridge since the visits of President Jiang Zemin and President Hu Jintao where diplomacy had taken precedence over bilateral trade. One should not be surprised if Jinping has come with a baggage that aims at arresting the growing trade deficit against India. Modi actually deserves a pat for making it implicitly clear to Beijing that the only mutually beneficial option was trade investment rather than tariff concessions. While investment per se may not be a conduit for bringing down the trade deficit, it could help the country's manufacturing sector through imports from China.
 |
| Modi and Xi: Shake or bake. (pmindia.gov.in) |
With the exception of Pakistan, the other countries have not exactly fallen in line and they still consider India as big brother given the history. Apparently, the Chinese are trying to tackle India by also diminishing its influence in the neighbourhood. So it is not about military confrontation alone. In Bhutan, the borders are not properly demarcated and Doklam is one such contentious area. In all probability this dispute is in for a long haul.For the first time I discern that while a war hysteria has been whipped up by the Chinese, something that Indian people are hugely concerned in the shadow of history, the Indian government has chosen to play it down by not responding in the same measure. The Chinese, true to their style, have quickly massed their troops along the border and although New Delhi denies any such build-up in retaliation, there are unconfirmed reports that the army is not taking the Chinese threat lying down.
There is a school of thought that says China cannot afford a military confrontation because there is a huge market for their goods in India which means that economic considerations over-rule the compulsions of a war. If a war breaks out Doklam will provide the Chinese with a dominant ground by taking the strategic India, China, Bhutan tri-junction. If and when that happens, the Reds will be dangerously close because the corridor would connect them with North-East from where the Indian border is just 30 kms away. Of course, China has a track record of going ahead with its expansionist policies even in the midst of diplomatic moves. Remember when Xi came to India and was talking to Modi, Chinese troops had made inroads into Ladakh. Read it with the situation in 1962 when China attacked India in the thick of Hindi-Chini-bhai-bhai hoopla.
There seems to be a lot of confusion about the way Indian government is responding to the crisis. The issue is bound to come up with the country's National Security advisor in Beijing. Much depends on how the governments deals with the situation at the diplomatic level because despite the much touted improved capacity of the Army, the fact remains that it still is a lopsided comparison. What goes in India's favour is that there is some political upheaval in China and it cannot do more than raising a full scale war bogey. That gives India some breathing time. There is also a feeling among the Chinese people that Xi is just trying to cash in on raising nationalism as public sentiment like Modi is doing in India. I foresee only skirmishes and not a war at least until September. Besides, the Indian Army is well prepared this time and they would be no pushovers as they were five decades back.
The Chinese have a 70 billion dollar business with India which is a huge deterrent but China believes in muscle flexing more than its external economic compulsions. As for the army might, the Chinese are an untested force. They haven't fought a war as against India which is more war-tuned given the Pakistan factor and the military drills it conducts across many countries. However, there are several imponderables in the situation from which it is difficult to predict if there would be a war.
Until then there will be a war between hostility and diplomacy.
On the positive side, this is what I wrote barely a year back.
If there is one thing that you got to give it to the ruthlessly pushy Chinese, it is their clear perceptions in not mixing bilateral trade with security issues. So even as Prime Minister Narendra Modi carries forward his investment caravan by hosting the incumbent President Xi Jinping with Khaman Dhokla and Won Ton soup for the starters, there is a reasonable sense of optimism that the country's creaking infrastructure will get a much needed boost from this new-found engagement.
Naysayers will, of course, be quick to harp on China's past record in treachery as also its meagre investments post-2000 but much water has flown under the bridge since the visits of President Jiang Zemin and President Hu Jintao where diplomacy had taken precedence over bilateral trade. One should not be surprised if Jinping has come with a baggage that aims at arresting the growing trade deficit against India. Modi actually deserves a pat for making it implicitly clear to Beijing that the only mutually beneficial option was trade investment rather than tariff concessions. While investment per se may not be a conduit for bringing down the trade deficit, it could help the country's manufacturing sector through imports from China.
No comments:
Post a Comment