Raju Korti
For two decades, the Taliban’s
rise and consolidation in Afghanistan were not merely a product of internal
Afghan dynamics but also a carefully nurtured and supported geopolitical
project. Pakistan, with its strategic ambitions, played a key role in providing
the Taliban with sanctuary, resources, and ideological backing. Yet, as the
Taliban ascended to power once more in 2021, the fruits of this alliance began
to sour, presenting a potential geopolitical twist: the Taliban, once an ally
of Pakistan, is now a liability -- a Frankenstein's monster that Islamabad
helped create but is struggling to control. This shift in the Taliban-Pakistan
relationship has profound implications for regional security, particularly for
India, which faces both opportunities and challenges as this new dynamic
unfolds.
In the late 1990s, Pakistan was one of only three countries to
formally recognize the Taliban regime in Afghanistan, along with Saudi Arabia
and the United Arab Emirates. Islamabad viewed the Taliban as a strategic asset
to ensure a friendly, pliant government in Kabul that would guarantee
Pakistan’s western border remained secure, prevent India from gaining influence
in Afghanistan, and, crucially, serve as a bulwark against Indian influence in
Central Asia.
In the subsequent years, Pakistan's support for the Taliban was
multifaceted: logistical, military, and ideological. Pakistan’s intelligence
agency, the ISI, provided training, financial support, and sanctuary to Taliban
fighters, positioning the group as a proxy to advance Pakistan’s strategic
objectives. This alliance was symbiotic -- while Pakistan benefited from the
Taliban’s victories, the Taliban, too, thrived under the wings of Pakistani
patronage.
However, the Taliban’s 2021 return to power in Kabul has introduced
a complex twist. While Pakistan celebrated the success of its long-time
protégés, the Taliban's success has come at a high cost. The once-benevolent
relationship has soured as Islamabad’s role in shaping the Taliban’s policies
has diminished. The Taliban has not hesitated to pursue policies that often
conflict with Pakistan’s interests.
Firstly, the Taliban’s treatment of the
ethnic Pashtun population in both Afghanistan and Pakistan has aggravated
tensions between the two countries. The Pashtun nationalist movement,
especially groups like the Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), has gained
traction. The TTP, a militant group with close ties to the Taliban, has
launched cross-border attacks, destabilizing Pakistan's tribal regions and
challenging Islamabad’s authority. While the Taliban has occasionally pledged
to curb the TTP, their fealty to Pashtun nationalism and its transnational
dimensions complicates any serious crackdown on the group.
Moreover, the
Taliban’s defiance of Pakistan’s influence in Afghanistan -- especially in regard
to matters like border security and the status of the Durand Line, which
Pakistan considers its western boundary --has tested the limits of Islamabad's
leverage. The Taliban has shown little inclination to give Pakistan a free hand
in determining Afghanistan’s future, signaling a broader, more autonomous
approach to governance than Pakistan had hoped for.
This evolving relationship
between the Taliban and Pakistan presents a rare opportunity for India. India has found
itself in a unique position where it can leverage the growing enmity between
the two entities, using it as a tool to weaken Pakistan’s influence in
Afghanistan.
It is more than obvious that the Taliban’s recent actions and rhetoric also highlight its increasing
divergence from Pakistan's interests. As Pakistan grapples with the
consequences of its miscalculation -- emboldening a group it now struggles to
control -- India can quietly seek to bolster its own position in Afghanistan,
without directly engaging in the country’s internal politics. India’s objective
should be to exploit the weakening of Pakistan's position in Afghanistan
without becoming embroiled in Afghanistan’s internal conflicts. The key lies in
a policy of strategic patience, diplomatic engagement, and calculated outreach.
India must avoid rushing into a confrontational posture, instead
taking the long view in its approach to Afghanistan. This period of
Taliban-Pakistan estrangement can give India a window to establish itself as a
constructive power broker, one that can help shape Afghanistan’s future without
directly aligning with any particular faction. The goal should be to help
Afghanistan stabilize without getting ensnared in its factional politics.
Parallely, India
should open channels of communication with the Taliban government to ensure its
interests are protected. While engaging with a group that is ideologically
hostile to India may be uncomfortable, the reality is that India has diplomatic
relations with countries like Iran and Israel, which are also hostile to
Pakistan’s interests, without direct confrontation. By maintaining a pragmatic,
cautious approach, India can find avenues to advance its economic, security,
and regional interests.
Beyond the Taliban, India can enhance its
outreach to the broader Afghan population, including ethnic minorities, civil
society groups, and business communities. Building stronger people-to-people
ties, and supporting the development of Afghanistan's infrastructure,
education, and health sectors, will allow India to gain soft power influence in
Afghanistan, irrespective of the political tides.
A more fractious and
unpredictable Taliban is likely to spur even more cross-border terrorism, both
in Pakistan and in India. India can work with international partners to curtail
the activities of militant groups like the TTP and others that could threaten
its security. India’s experience in counterterrorism and its global
intelligence-sharing networks could serve as valuable tools in tackling this
growing menace.
India must also be mindful of the broader regional context. The
role of countries like Iran, Russia, and China in Afghanistan will influence
the political calculus. India should seek to deepen ties with these nations,
which share concerns over the instability and radicalism in Afghanistan. A
collaborative approach to countering the security challenges posed by the
Taliban can help India reduce the risk of becoming isolated in its efforts.
The
Taliban’s newfound autonomy and its growing estrangement from Pakistan present
India with a rare opportunity to tip the scales in its favour in Afghanistan.
Yet, this is a delicate geopolitical landscape where missteps could backfire.
India’s success will depend on its ability to navigate the complex realities of
Afghan politics, its commitment to diplomatic engagement, and its strategic patience
in a region where stability is ever elusive.
The key will be to weaken
Pakistan’s hold on Afghanistan without stepping into the fray itself. This will
require a careful balancing act, one that maximizes opportunities while
minimizing risks. If India plays its cards right, it could emerge as a key player
in the shaping of Afghanistan’s future, even as the Taliban—once Pakistan’s
ally -- remains a wildcard in the region’s volatile geopolitical game.