Raju Korti
Flush with his victory, President-elect Donald Trump has unveiled a series of high-profile cabinet appointments, blending political loyalists, outspoken firebrands, and a few polarizing figures. Expectedly, these selections have sent ripples through the US of A and international political landscapes. About Washington's foreign policies to put it precisely.
Donald Trump, Wikipedia grab |
It is only natural that I (must) begin with the Indian standpoint. India stands to benefit from Trump's pro-business stance and counter-China agenda, which align with New Delhi's own strategic priorities. His earlier tenure saw stronger bilateral ties (compared to Biden), driven by mutual interests in defence, trade and counter-terrorism. The catch here is Trump's tendency to scrutinize trade imbalances may also resurface, potentially leading to tensions on issues like market access and tariffs. As fellow journalist, Mayank Chhaya observed cryptically after Trump's victory: "Ab taareef aur tariffs, dono ke liye taiyyar ho jaiye".
In the case of China, I do not see Trump's hardline stance likely to soften any bit. His trade wars, technology bans and rhetoric blaming Beijing for the Covid-19 pandemic highlight his confrontational approach. There is therefore every reason to believe that his second term could see an intensified decoupling efforts, with broader alliances like the Quad playing more central role.
My gut feeling is Russia presents a more complex scenario. Despite accusations of undue deference to Vladimir Putin during his first term, Trump may leverage his unconventional diplomacy to navigate the Ukraine crisis, albeit with a more America-centric focus. It would not be altogether surprising that such an approach could embolden Moscow, but his unpredictability keeps this relationship on a tightrope.
Iran has a bigger headache on its hands. Trump's decision to withdraw from the nuclear deal underscored his zero-tolerance policy towards Tehran's regional ambitions. A return to power imply heightened sanctions, military posturing, and limited diplomatic engagement unless, of course, Iran bends significantly. In the present scenario, that is difficult to imagine.
While there has been a talk about Pakistan having all the cause of worry, it needs to be kept in mind that Trump's oscillation between praise and criticism could persist. While he may continue to demand accountability on counter-terrorism, his transactional approach could also see renewed aid if deemed strategically beneficial. What this simply translates into is the Americans will be guided by their own political expediencies and the India-Pakistan dynamics will play a limited role -- mostly pompous statements -- as and when it suits them. Understandably, some of the announcements made in the past by his aides have sparked unease in Pakistan, but I personally do not read too much into it as these contradiction always obtain.
A notable hallmark of Trump's governance has been the appointment of ultra-wealthy individuals to key cabinet positions, raising concerns about an indicative Plutocracy. His second administration may amplify this trend, with billionaires and corporate elites likely to hold sway in policy-making decisions. It is not without a plausible reason that this approach risks prioritizing corporate interests over public good, undermining trust in governance.