Missiles, markets and machismo: A new Cold War brews in broad daylight

Raju Korti
There’s a strange déjà vu in the air -- like history is flexing its old Cold War muscles, but this time the nuclear posturing is louder, the energy diplomacy murkier, and the players more brazen. With Russia officially walking out of the INF Treaty, it isn’t just an arms-control document shredded. It is a signal to the world: restraint is out, escalation is in.

For India, the timing couldn’t have been more fraught. As Washington tightens the noose on nations doing energy business with Moscow, New Delhi finds itself in the crosshairs -- not just of US tariffs but of being morally lectured for a strategy the West itself had encouraged early in the Ukraine war. What was once seen as pragmatism -- keeping Russian oil flowing to stabilise global prices -- is now being branded as opportunism.

But India isn’t blinking. Its imports of Russian oil, which barely registered before 2022, now account for over a third of its crude basket. This is less about favouring Moscow and more about national interest -- the kind the West too conveniently forgets when it suits them. And when External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar calls out Western hypocrisy, there’s an unmissable global resonance.

Meanwhile, Russia is bolting its arsenal with renewed nuclear muscle. The missiles once mothballed under the INF Treaty are back on the menu. And they could soon be stationed within striking range of Europe or Asia-Pacific. This isn’t just about NATO or American subs lurking in undisclosed waters. This is about a world where deterrence is dictated by dominance, not diplomacy.

Caught in the crossfire is a fragile global equilibrium, where rhetoric has replaced reasoning and power posturing has pushed sanity to the sidelines. The US -- under Trump 2.0 -- seems less interested in alliances and more in ultimatums. From demanding a ceasefire in Ukraine by a self-imposed August 8 deadline to repositioning nuclear submarines and threatening trade partners, America is once again acting less like a team player and more like the referee and the striker.

Enter the existential dread. Far removed from news tickers and diplomatic communiqués is a growing fear quietly documented by the Centre for the Study of Existential Risk. If doomsday does knock early, it might be because three men — Trump, Putin and Xi -- have replaced statesmanship with self-image. Their collective traits of narcissism, cold pragmatism, and Machiavellian cunning resemble the very characteristics that have led great empires to their knees, from Rome to Mesopotamia.

This isn’t mere theory. It is a pattern. Power consolidated in a few hands, backed by weapons and wealth, caged within borders where the rest can only watch. Today’s Goliaths aren’t bronze-age kings with swords but modern oligarchs with missiles, oil rigs, and algorithms. And unlike past collapses that offered post-fall prosperity, the next one might come with fallout -- literally.

India, like many others, is navigating this minefield with careful defiance. It is refusing to be bullied, even as it avoids being dragged fully into either camp. But the room for balance is shrinking. With treaties crumbling and egos inflating, the world is inching closer to a dangerous polarity. One without safety nets.

The Cold War, at least, had rules. This new era doesn’t even pretend to.