Asteroid 2024 YR4 and the cosmic cliffhanger

Raju Korti
Trust the universe to throw curveballs -- sometimes literally. Just when you thought the biggest threat to your Monday morning was the Mumbai traffic or your boss’s mood swings, along comes Asteroid 2024 YR4, promising what might be the most thrilling celestial event since someone first noticed the moon had craters. And no, this isn’t a Bollywood plot twist, though the drama levels are comparable.

Asteroids and UFOs seem to be the universe’s way of spicing up human life -- like cosmic pranksters reminding us that beyond deadlines and taxes, there’s a rock hurtling through space that might just crash your weekend plans. NASA, the cosmic killjoy or saviour (depending on how you see it), has been at the forefront of these alerts, occasionally reminding us that space isn’t just for Instagram-worthy starry skies. Yes, asteroids have hit us before -- ask the dinosaurs. Around 65 million years ago, a 10 to 15 km wide asteroid struck what’s now Mexico, wiping out 70% of species. Grim? Yes. Fascinating? Absolutely.

Fast forward to 2024, and we have YR4, discovered last December by the ATLAS telescope in Chile. Initially, scientists gave it a 1% chance of hitting Earth -- high enough to make space nerds panic and meme-makers rejoice. For context, a 1% chance in asteroid terms is like hearing, "There’s a tiny chance your chai could explode... but probably not." Naturally, media outlets went into overdrive. Mumbaikars, always game for drama, might’ve momentarily paused their dabbas to wonder: Is this how it ends? Right after I renewed my gym membership?

Then came an update from NASA -- good news (sort of): the impact probability has dropped to 1.5%. That’s a 1 in 67 chance. You’re still more likely to get stuck in a Mumbai traffic jam -- but let's be honest, that's a given. And just to add some cosmic spice, there's a small chance YR4 could hit the Moon. Not that the Moon's complaining -- it's been taking hits for us for billions of years.

Now, about that "city killer" label -- it’s not just a catchy name. At an estimated 100 to 300 feet wide, YR4’s potential blast radius could level a city. NASA’s data points to a risk area stretching from the eastern Pacific to parts of Africa and South Asia. That includes Mumbai, Kolkata, Dhaka, Lagos, Bogota, and other bustling metropolises. Over 11 crore people could theoretically be in the line of fire. But then, what’s life without a little cosmic roulette?

The real kicker is there’s a 99% chance it’ll miss Earth entirely. That’s great for humanity’s survival but a tad disappointing for those secretly hoping to witness a meteor-light show before the daily grind resumes. Imagine the WhatsApp forwards: "Big rock coming! Stay indoors! Or better -- take a selfie with it!"

Of course, scientists will keep tracking YR4, refining predictions until December 22, 2032 -- the ultimate date when we find out if Earth is outside its range. So, mark your calendars… or don’t. If it does hit, planning for New Year’s 2033 might be redundant.

For now, let’s carry on with our everyday existential woes, comforted (or unnerved) by the fact that somewhere out there, a space rock is deciding whether to be a headline or just another rock passing by. As for us Mumbaikars, we’ll brace for the worst, hope for the best, and -- asteroid or not -- complain about the humidity anyway.

Because if the end comes riding a giant space pebble, at least we’ll have the satisfaction of saying, "Well, that’s one pretext to skip the Monday meeting."