Wednesday, February 5, 2025

The Gaza Gambit: A US takeover promises another Vietnam fiasco.

Raju Korti
President Trump is on a signing spree, issuing executive orders like there is no tomorrow. While he keeps shifting gears, one feet firmly on the accelerator, the most bizarre is the Gaza take-over. Those tempted to think that this is sheer bluster, should also ponder to look at what if he really goes ahead with this outlandish idea. To say that this could destabilize an already volatile region and provoke international backlash is an understatement.

I am not sure just how much Tel Aviv is in sync with this plan which obviously overlooks the complex historical and political context of Gaza, and could have unintended consequences. Imagine a possible take over -- whether as a military protectorate, a temporary occupation, or an outright territorial claim. It would set off a chain of events that could plunge the region, and possibly the world, into chaos. I am inclined to believe that this could invite the kind of frustration and ignominy the US faced in the aftermath of the Vietnam War.

Would such an endeavour mirror the infamous Vietnam War, where US. intervention turned into a costly quagmire? The historical lessons of Vietnam suggest that any such move could lead to a similarly disastrous outcome. The Vietnam War, initially seen as a limited engagement to curb communism, turned into an unwinnable guerrilla conflict. The US. underestimated the resilience of the Viet Cong and the nationalist fervour of the North Vietnamese. Similarly, any effort to take over Gaza would almost certainly meet fierce resistance from local militant groups like Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad, not to mention widespread civilian opposition.

The urban warfare tactics that Hamas employs would make a military occupation exceedingly difficult, just as jungle warfare confounded US. troops in Vietnam. During the Vietnam War, US involvement led to widespread criticism from allies and adversaries alike. Countries that once supported the US effort began distancing themselves, and global opinion turned overwhelmingly negative. A unilateral US intervention in Gaza would likely provoke similar condemnation.

The Arab world, the European Union, and even traditional allies like Turkey and Saudi Arabia would find it difficult to support such an aggressive action. The US would risk alienating itself diplomatically, just as it did during the Vietnam era. The US military, despite its superior firepower, could not subdue the Viet Cong due to their decentralized, guerrilla-based resistance. Gaza presents a similar challenge. The terrain may be different, but the principle remains: local fighters know the territory, enjoy underground support, and can operate in ways that would stretch the limits of conventional US military strategy. Any prolonged presence in Gaza would be met with endless resistance, suicide bombings, ambushes, and rocket attacks, making governance untenable.

The Vietnam War sparked massive protests in the US, with citizens increasingly questioning why American soldiers were dying in a distant land with no clear objectives. If a US administration were to engage in a prolonged occupation of Gaza, it would likely face similar domestic resistance. With war fatigue already evident from past conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan, I doubt if the American public would have the patience for another drawn-out foreign entanglement. While the comparisons are striking, there are, of course, important differences.

Vietnam was part of a broader ideological struggle against communism, while Gaza is deeply entrenched in the Israel-Palestine conflict. The geopolitical calculations are different. The Vietnam War involved hundreds of thousands of US troops in large-scale battles. A Gaza intervention, while still costly, would be of a smaller scale, though no less complicated. In Vietnam, the US fought largely on its own after initial French withdrawal. In Gaza, Israel would be a key factor, complicating US decision-making and strategic planning.

It is highly unlikely that any US president, including Trump, would formally claim ownership of Gaza. However, if such an idea were to gain traction -- perhaps as part of a radical peace plan or an aggressive anti-terrorism move -- it would almost certainly lead to severe resistance and long-term failure. The Vietnam War stands as a stark warning: direct intervention in a foreign land with deep-rooted conflicts often backfires, leading to costly, prolonged entanglements that benefit neither the occupying force nor the local population. Recall the faces of frustrated American soldiers who had lost the plot completely, fighting a needless battle.  

A US takeover (or occupation if you like it) of Gaza would not only be an international and military disaster but also a political one, both domestically and abroad. The lessons of Vietnam loom large, reminding that intervention without a clear exit strategy, an understanding of local dynamics, and strong international support is a recipe for failure. The way Trump has gone about after assuming the office, this should not be considered as a mere hypothetical scenario. It is provoking history to repeat itself with dire consequences.

Tuesday, February 4, 2025

Deportations have legal, social and diplomatic headache for India

Raju Korti
The return of 205 undocumented Indian migrants from the United States will be legal, social, administrative and diplomatic headache for India. As President Donald Trump follows through on his mass deportation promise, India finds itself at a crossroads -- balancing diplomatic relations with the US, ensuring national security, and addressing the socio-economic challenges of rehabilitating deported individuals. With an estimated 725,000 undocumented Indian nationals in the US, the implications of these deportations extend far beyond the immediate repatriation process.

(An AI-generated visual representation)
India has historically cooperated with foreign nations in accepting its nationals who have entered other countries illegally. External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar has reaffirmed India’s commitment to the "legitimate return" of its citizens. However, the manner in which these deportations are carried out must be given due attention.

For India, the priority should be to ensure that these deportations do not impact legal immigration pathways. The Indian government must also ensure that these individuals are not treated as criminals but as people seeking better opportunities, even if through unlawful means. This is crucial in maintaining the goodwill of the Indian diaspora in the US, which plays a significant role in India’s economic and strategic interests. Furthermore, the optics of Indian nationals being flown back on military aircraft evoke colonial-era sentiments, potentially damaging Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s image domestically and India's global standing.

PM Modi’s upcoming meeting with President Trump presents an opportunity to negotiate a structured approach. India must emphasize the need for a humane repatriation process and highlight the broader strategic losses for the US if deportations are conducted in a harsh and humiliating manner. The Indo-Pacific alliance against China, bilateral trade, and cooperation in technology and defense are all critical elements that should be leveraged in negotiations.

Beyond diplomacy, these deportations raise serious security questions. Authorities must thoroughly debrief the returnees to assess: Their backgrounds and potential security threats, the involvement of human traffickers or organized crime in their migration, and, whether any of them pose risks due to potential radicalization.

Given the ongoing tensions in Punjab and other parts of India, where illegal migration is often linked to organized crime syndicates, intelligence agencies must work closely with law enforcement to ensure that deported individuals do not become susceptible to criminal networks. The government must also engage with international partners to crack down on illegal migration routes and human smuggling rackets.

The deported individuals, many of whom have spent years in the US, face significant reintegration challenges. The government must address key socio-economic concerns, including: Many deportees may have acquired skills in the US that are not immediately transferable to the Indian job market. The government must implement reskilling programs and provide financial assistance to help them reintegrate. Being deported carries a societal stigma, particularly in regions where migration is seen as a status symbol. The government must work with local communities to prevent the marginalization of returnees. The psychological impact of being uprooted from a life built abroad can be severe. Counselling services and support groups should be established to help returnees adjust.

This mass deportation serves as a wake-up call for India to address the root causes of illegal migration. The economic desperation that drives individuals to undertake risky journeys in search of a better life must be tackled through job creation, skill development, and improved governance. The ‘Dunki’ route -- a term referring to illegal migration pathways -- can only be discouraged if legitimate opportunities exist domestically.

India must handle this situation with a multi-pronged approach that balances diplomacy, national security, and socio-economic rehabilitation. While cooperation with the US is necessary, India must ensure that deported individuals are treated with dignity and that future migration pathways remain open. By addressing the underlying causes of illegal immigration, India can not only manage this crisis effectively but also strengthen its long-term socio-economic stability and global standing.

The Gaza Gambit: A US takeover promises another Vietnam fiasco.

Raju Korti President Trump is on a signing spree, issuing executive orders like there is no tomorrow. While he keeps shifting gears, one fee...