The Taliban’s reversal: How Pakistan’s Frankenstein has become a monster!

Raju Korti
For two decades, the Taliban’s rise and consolidation in Afghanistan were not merely a product of internal Afghan dynamics but also a carefully nurtured and supported geopolitical project. Pakistan, with its strategic ambitions, played a key role in providing the Taliban with sanctuary, resources, and ideological backing. Yet, as the Taliban ascended to power once more in 2021, the fruits of this alliance began to sour, presenting a potential geopolitical twist: the Taliban, once an ally of Pakistan, is now a liability -- a Frankenstein's monster that Islamabad helped create but is struggling to control. This shift in the Taliban-Pakistan relationship has profound implications for regional security, particularly for India, which faces both opportunities and challenges as this new dynamic unfolds.

In the late 1990s, Pakistan was one of only three countries to formally recognize the Taliban regime in Afghanistan, along with Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. Islamabad viewed the Taliban as a strategic asset to ensure a friendly, pliant government in Kabul that would guarantee Pakistan’s western border remained secure, prevent India from gaining influence in Afghanistan, and, crucially, serve as a bulwark against Indian influence in Central Asia.

In the subsequent years, Pakistan's support for the Taliban was multifaceted: logistical, military, and ideological. Pakistan’s intelligence agency, the ISI, provided training, financial support, and sanctuary to Taliban fighters, positioning the group as a proxy to advance Pakistan’s strategic objectives. This alliance was symbiotic -- while Pakistan benefited from the Taliban’s victories, the Taliban, too, thrived under the wings of Pakistani patronage.

However, the Taliban’s 2021 return to power in Kabul has introduced a complex twist. While Pakistan celebrated the success of its long-time protégés, the Taliban's success has come at a high cost. The once-benevolent relationship has soured as Islamabad’s role in shaping the Taliban’s policies has diminished. The Taliban has not hesitated to pursue policies that often conflict with Pakistan’s interests.

Firstly, the Taliban’s treatment of the ethnic Pashtun population in both Afghanistan and Pakistan has aggravated tensions between the two countries. The Pashtun nationalist movement, especially groups like the Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), has gained traction. The TTP, a militant group with close ties to the Taliban, has launched cross-border attacks, destabilizing Pakistan's tribal regions and challenging Islamabad’s authority. While the Taliban has occasionally pledged to curb the TTP, their fealty to Pashtun nationalism and its transnational dimensions complicates any serious crackdown on the group.

Moreover, the Taliban’s defiance of Pakistan’s influence in Afghanistan -- especially in regard to matters like border security and the status of the Durand Line, which Pakistan considers its western boundary --has tested the limits of Islamabad's leverage. The Taliban has shown little inclination to give Pakistan a free hand in determining Afghanistan’s future, signaling a broader, more autonomous approach to governance than Pakistan had hoped for.

This evolving relationship between the Taliban and Pakistan presents a rare opportunity for India. India has found itself in a unique position where it can leverage the growing enmity between the two entities, using it as a tool to weaken Pakistan’s influence in Afghanistan.

 It is more than obvious that the Taliban’s recent actions and rhetoric also highlight its increasing divergence from Pakistan's interests. As Pakistan grapples with the consequences of its miscalculation -- emboldening a group it now struggles to control -- India can quietly seek to bolster its own position in Afghanistan, without directly engaging in the country’s internal politics. India’s objective should be to exploit the weakening of Pakistan's position in Afghanistan without becoming embroiled in Afghanistan’s internal conflicts. The key lies in a policy of strategic patience, diplomatic engagement, and calculated outreach.

India must avoid rushing into a confrontational posture, instead taking the long view in its approach to Afghanistan. This period of Taliban-Pakistan estrangement can give India a window to establish itself as a constructive power broker, one that can help shape Afghanistan’s future without directly aligning with any particular faction. The goal should be to help Afghanistan stabilize without getting ensnared in its factional politics.

Parallely, India should open channels of communication with the Taliban government to ensure its interests are protected. While engaging with a group that is ideologically hostile to India may be uncomfortable, the reality is that India has diplomatic relations with countries like Iran and Israel, which are also hostile to Pakistan’s interests, without direct confrontation. By maintaining a pragmatic, cautious approach, India can find avenues to advance its economic, security, and regional interests.

Beyond the Taliban, India can enhance its outreach to the broader Afghan population, including ethnic minorities, civil society groups, and business communities. Building stronger people-to-people ties, and supporting the development of Afghanistan's infrastructure, education, and health sectors, will allow India to gain soft power influence in Afghanistan, irrespective of the political tides.

A more fractious and unpredictable Taliban is likely to spur even more cross-border terrorism, both in Pakistan and in India. India can work with international partners to curtail the activities of militant groups like the TTP and others that could threaten its security. India’s experience in counterterrorism and its global intelligence-sharing networks could serve as valuable tools in tackling this growing menace.

India must also be mindful of the broader regional context. The role of countries like Iran, Russia, and China in Afghanistan will influence the political calculus. India should seek to deepen ties with these nations, which share concerns over the instability and radicalism in Afghanistan. A collaborative approach to countering the security challenges posed by the Taliban can help India reduce the risk of becoming isolated in its efforts.

The Taliban’s newfound autonomy and its growing estrangement from Pakistan present India with a rare opportunity to tip the scales in its favour in Afghanistan. Yet, this is a delicate geopolitical landscape where missteps could backfire. India’s success will depend on its ability to navigate the complex realities of Afghan politics, its commitment to diplomatic engagement, and its strategic patience in a region where stability is ever elusive.

The key will be to weaken Pakistan’s hold on Afghanistan without stepping into the fray itself. This will require a careful balancing act, one that maximizes opportunities while minimizing risks. If India plays its cards right, it could emerge as a key player in the shaping of Afghanistan’s future, even as the Taliban—once Pakistan’s ally -- remains a wildcard in the region’s volatile geopolitical game.