Uddhav: At political crossroad and the risk of irrelevance

Raju Korti
Uddhav Thackeray’s Shiv Sena (UBT) finds itself at a precarious crossroads, teetering between ideological confusion and political isolation ahead of the crucial Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC) polls, expected in mid-2025. Guided by confidante Sanjay Raut, Uddhav’s departure from Bal Thackeray’s core Hindutva ideology to align with the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) was seen as both a strategic and ideological gamble. While this alliance propped him up as Maharashtra’s Chief Minister in 2019, the subsequent electoral drubbing and the party’s internal rebellion have pushed Uddhav into an existential battle to retain relevance. 

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The recent setbacks – most notably in the 2024 Maharashtra assembly polls, where Eknath Shinde’s faction reaffirmed its dominance – have forced the Uddhav-led Sena to perform an ideological U-turn. After distancing itself from Hindutva for the sake of its MVA alliance, the party is now attempting to reclaim its lost voter base by invoking its old, aggressive Hindutva stance. Symbolic moves, such as Aditya Thackeray’s ‘maha aarti’ at the Hanuman Temple in Dadar and public criticism of atrocities on Hindus in Bangladesh, underscore this tactical pivot. 

Milind Narvekar’s provocative post referencing the 1992 Babri Masjid demolition and Bal Thackeray’s infamous quote (“I am proud of those who did it”) further signals a shift back to the Sena’s foundational ideology. However, this abrupt reversion to Hindutva has alienated key allies. The Samajwadi Party’s withdrawal from the MVA, citing discomfort with the Sena’s stance, reflects the deep fault lines within the alliance. 

Uddhav Thackeray’s political maneuvering now risks leaving him isolated on all fronts. The BJP, which once considered the undivided Shiv Sena its “natural ally,” remains unforgiving of Uddhav’s betrayal in 2019. His relentless attacks on the BJP since breaking away have ensured that any reconciliation remains improbable. BJP leaders continue to lampoon him as a “non-performing CM” who rarely stepped out during COVID-19, communicating instead through Facebook. This enduring image, combined with his policy somersaults, makes Uddhav politically toxic for the BJP. 

Within the MVA, the cracks are deepening. Sharad Pawar’s NCP faction is likely wary of Uddhav’s renewed Hindutva rhetoric, which risks alienating the Muslim vote bank crucial for the alliance. The Congress, too, may find it difficult to justify its alignment with a party seemingly resurrecting its old communal agenda. Uddhav’s pivot back to Hindutva, therefore, puts the entire alliance in jeopardy. 

The ideological confusion within Uddhav’s camp is not new. Discontent among Shiv Sena leaders has simmered since 2019, when Uddhav allied with the Congress and NCP. Many senior leaders and cadres remained uneasy with the shift, given the Shiv Sena’s long-standing Hindutva ethos. The subsequent rebellion led by Eknath Shinde in 2022, where 41 of 63 MLAs defected, reflected the deep ideological divide within the party. 

The November 2024 assembly election results further exposed the erosion of Uddhav’s core voter base. In Mumbai, his stronghold, the party won only 10 of the 24 seats it contested. Even in traditional bastions like Worli, held by Aditya Thackeray, the leads were marginal. The BJP’s accusation that the Uddhav faction relied on minority votes has struck a chord with disillusioned Sena loyalists. Recognizing this vulnerability, Uddhav’s shift back to Hindutva appears to be an attempt to consolidate his base ahead of the BMC elections. 

The BMC elections are critical for Uddhav Thackeray’s political survival. The undivided Shiv Sena controlled Mumbai’s cash-rich civic body for 25 years, and losing control in 2022 was a significant blow. In 2017, the Shiv Sena and BJP were neck-and-neck, with 84 and 82 seats, respectively. Since the split, the BJP has emerged stronger in Mumbai, while Uddhav’s faction has struggled to retain its traditional support. 

The Sena’s move back to Hindutva is a calculated gamble to regain lost ground in Mumbai, where it won four of six Lok Sabha seats earlier this year. However, its underwhelming performance in assembly segments within these constituencies highlights a shrinking support base. The party’s reliance on minority votes in certain wards, coupled with its ambiguous stance on issues like the Uniform Civil Code, has alienated both its core supporters and its allies. 

Uddhav Thackeray’s current predicament is the result of his failure to balance ideological coherence with political pragmatism. By abandoning its secular stance, the Shiv Sena (UBT) risks further fragmenting the MVA while failing to outflank the BJP on the Hindutva front. For the BJP, which has successfully claimed the Hindutva mantle, Uddhav’s attempts to return to his roots are seen as both opportunistic and inadequate. 

The Shiv Sena’s historical strength lay in its ability to blend regional pride with Hindutva. However, Uddhav’s zigzagging between secularism and Hindutva has eroded the party’s identity. The risk now is that Uddhav Thackeray may find himself reduced to a political persona non grata -- isolated from the MVA, rejected by the BJP, and distrusted by his own cadres. 

With the BMC polls looming, Uddhav faces an uphill battle to regain credibility and relevance. The Shiv Sena (UBT) must reconcile its ideological contradictions and rebuild its base from scratch. Failure to do so may leave Uddhav Thackeray neither here nor there -- a leader without a party, an ideology, or a political home.