Russia-Ukraine conflict and drumming up of a World War

Raju Korti

War-ready Russian soldier

Even as President Vladimir Putin flexes his muscles to raise a spectre of what many believe has the potential of snowballing into a Third World War, my personal take on the situation along the Ukraine border, although grave, is it will not escalate into any significant military aggression. Among the many scenarios mentioned is a full-fledged military operation that might result in the capture of either part of or entire Ukraine. Those jumping the gun see this happening in a few weeks or even days.

I must admit my prophecy is based on part logic and part gut feeling. A large scale Russian offensive against Ukraine to me is unlikely for many reasons even judging on military might alone. Although Russia is the biggest fragment of the erstwhile Soviet Union, Ukraine is the second-largest country in East Europe after Russia which it borders to east and north-east.

The 100, 000 troops that Russia has massed along the Ukrainian border is just not enough. It would need in those in multiples of more to engage even in a semblance of a hostility. The Russian army would need a massive coordination and logistics management that would ensure with adequate weapons and military equipment. This would call for strategic reserves and reliable logistics, including in the occupied territories. I am not too sure if these have been sorted out to the tune required. Russia's ability to hold occupied territories is questionable while the combat experience of  Ukrainians surpasses that of the Russian troops who fought in Syria or in any other armed conflicts in recent decades. 

I am inclined to believe that a large-scale military offensive with an attempt to hold large occupied territories will be a huge gamble for the Russians knowing well that it has little chance of any positive outcome. Even if the Russians do go ahead with this long shot, it is well neigh impossible to calculate the course of such an operation. There is every likelihood that such a road map would quickly move to an uncontrollable point.       

Beyond the military option, Kremlin is well aware that the move could boomerang with international isolation and sanctions and that would be suicidal. For all his machismo, Putin will not want to risk this although history is replete with instances when leaders have forfeited their sanity and restraint for military bravado. Saddam Hussein is a case in point. 

Ukraine has considerable potential for self-defence in case Russian decides to escalate the situation to a flash point. It has an army that is adequately backed up by territorial defence units and other components of the Defense and Security Forces. They can inflict significant losses on the Russians, the economic implications of which could be serious and ill-affordable. The Ukrainians won't be silent spectators and could well resort to asymmetric actions like resistance movements and tactics in cyberspace. The question is whether they have the psychological resilience to face the impending fallout. 

The crisis in Ukraine can be traced to its President Viktor Yanukovvch's decision to turn down a deal for greater economic integration with the European Union. The President's decision of a violent crackdown by the security forces backfired and he had to flee after which Russians took control of Ukraine's Crimean region. In the aftermath, Crimeans chose to throw their lot with the Russian Federation in what was obviously a disputed referendum. Putin's justification of protecting the rights of Russian citizens in Crimea and south-east Ukraine only snowballed into deeper ethnic schisms. 

By all accounts, the situation has the trappings of the Cold War era with the two Communist blocks Russia and China coming close to bring in some diplomatic warmth. Putin has made the expected noises that Washington is using the conflict as a ruse to impose further sanctions on Russia. It is not far to seek that he is deeply concerned about the expansion of  Western military alliance of NATO which Ukraine is seeking to join.

On the flip side, President Biden seems to up the war ante by hyping up the issue and Kremlin downplaying it. That is not deterrence. Not by any stretch of imagination. It is almost as if he wants Russia to go ahead and attack Ukraine. That might be a reckless approach against nuclear powers like Russia and China.

With Russia and China cosying up to each other, pushing both Russia and China to a corner could seriously fracture diplomatic overtures. Such moves at dual containment have been tried and failed with even non-nuclear powers like Iraq and Iran. Its mutation into the "axis of evil" has clearly come a cropper. But consumed by hunger for power, world leaders couldn't care less.