Abdullahs in a 'begaani shaadi" called Afghanistan

Raju Korti
As Afghanistan hurtles from one crisis to another, I recall a piece that I wrote in The Indian Express in 1994 when the Taliban was making decisive inroads to gain control in the war-ravaged country. I had categorically stated that this was a war nobody would win. The Soviet Union coming to grips with its fragmentation had chosen to leave the theatre after installing a puppet government in 1989. The US took a headlong plunge post 2001 but it took them more than two decades to realize that they were fighting a futile war.

Taliban: Waiting for the decisive strike (File grab)

Battlefield since 1978, the emergence of Taliban and their dramatic advances had raised high hopes among war-weary Afghans that their miseries would come to an end. These hopes were dashed sooner than both the Soviets and Americans had thought. After overrunning Kabul, the Taliban remained engaged in a proxy war with the opposition forces led by Ahmed Shah Massoud. History has now repeated with Taliban gaining almost 80% control amidst heavy bloodshed. All because neighbouring countries and regional powers are viciously united in their continued support to the warring factions. 

I had also predicted that the internal conflict between anti-communist Islamic guerrillas and the Afghan communist government would blow up into a long Cold War between NATO and Warsaw Pact countries. The US withdrawal has been twenty years in the making. In its zeal to leave its global footprint, the US learnt next to nothing from the Vietnam war and its military miscarriages in Grenada, Nicaragua, Argentina, Fiji and elsewhere. The strife in Afghanistan has been costly, exhausting and increasingly unpopular, spilling over from one administration to another since George Bush. It persisted despite Obama and Trump making campaign promises under their respective presidencies.

President Biden's announcement about US exit is hasty, risky and ill-timed. For one, it is happening amidst a questionable peace process. It splinters Afghan government forces besides making a mockery of the sacrifices of its forces deployed there. For the emboldened Taliban this was just the opening they were looking for to stamp its presence. The poorly planned withdrawal announced by Biden might very likely boomerang if the Taliban and its terrorist allies manage to overwhelm Afghan forces. By all accounts that appears to be writing on the wall and if they manage to do that on or by 9/11, it will be terrible embarrassment for the Americans. The simple cue on the Soviet Union's exit and its aftermath should have been enough to indicate what might happen if the current trajectory is not checked. 

The US withdrawal could well lead to a similar situation -- devastating civil war and an eventual takeover by extremist hardliners. Taliban's recent moves suggest that it is positioning itself to wait out the occupation and strike at Kabul which is what the Mujahideen did to the Soviet Union in 1989. If this likely scenario transpires, Afghans who cooperated with allied forces with their stakeholders would be at risk. NATO cannot just disengage itself at this juncture just because there is an overly optimistic assessments by the American forces. The US cannot be a mute spectator as the Afghan forces cave in without putting up even a semblance of fight.

The Taliban is playing a smarter game this time by controlling and closing off the northern borders as well as on the Iranian side to prevent the growth of any Northern Alliance-like formation. I don't give the Afghans more than a few weeks before they crumble. The field is left clear with most foreign countries having pulled out. 

The resurgence of Taliban has ominous developments for New Delhi. It has activated support from Pakistan's terror groups like Lashkar-e-Toiba. India’s early engagement with post-Taliban Afghanistan was considered by the United States, Pakistan and the Afghan government to be a strategy to undermine Pakistan. While this may have been true at first, in recent years, India has come to accept that Pakistan has a special interest in Afghanistan that overshadows its own.

The algorithm has changed now. As Afghanistan meanders from bad to worst, it has moved from being a place where extremists co-existed and used terrorism to make a political statement on international scale to where radical ideologues are fighting for dominance. India seriously needs to rethink its long-standing approach towards the country. The premise that an external friendly power would do all the heavy lifting in Afghanistan will not work. For India, it should boil down to viewing Taliban as a Pakistan-sponsored entity that could intensify the insurgency in Kashmir.

It would be sound diplomatic practice for India to try to shape the contours of dialogue with the Afghan Taliban, regardless of who brokers this dialogue. It will allow India to support its partners in Kabul in maintaining an upper hand at the negotiation table and ensure India’s policy aim of maintaining a strategic balance between Afghanistan and Pakistan. However, I also anticipate India's pitch could well be queered by China providing economic aid to a bankrupt Afghan regime. The issue of Uighur Muslims may not be a deterrent in their bonhomie with the Taliban but then China might watch how the show unfolds before they throw their dice. 

Pakistan will not want to watch from the sidelines if Taliban does take over. It will gleefully become an interface between Taliban and China if and when it comes to that. They will seek to shape the contours of power equations to have some control over the Taliban and make sure that China does not snub them by dealing with the Taliban directly. In the midst of this rigmarole, Afghanistan will remain a case of "begaani shaadi mein Abdulle deewane."