Raju Korti
While "neutral" Singapore hosts two of the most quixotic leaders of our times in what can be mildly described as facetious, the optimism exuded by US President Donald Trump and North Korean Kim Jong-un is a remarkable red herring.
That the high stakes one-on-one has been preceded by some tricky negotiations comes as no surprise. I am not too sure how the under-chandelier dinner Trump had with Singapore Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong can contribute to the easing of stand off between the the two traditional foes.
Not just Trump and Kim, the world knows that entente is next to impossible. Both are not known to climb off their high horse.The issue of denuclearisation and security guarantee, and the measures to be taken by both the countries are in the realms of utopia given the insecurity they face from each other. A nuclear armament is both a safeguard and a threat depending on one's perception. There is little to be optimistic for both Trump and Kim since it is not clear -- at least at this stage -- whether the Americans can succeed in extracting a more comprehensive commitment to disarming than North Korea has already offered.
Note that the White House has chosen to speak the same couched Pyongyang language of "seeking complete verifiable and irreversible denuclearisation on the Korean Peninsula. The North Koreans are not fools to be taken in by those apparently pompous words. They know it as potentially requiring the US to scale back troop deployment there or to shrink its nuclear umbrella over two East Asian allies South Korea and Japan. Little wonder, the meet is so terse that Trump doesn't feel the need to stay around longer, although that is also being interpreted as the US dropping subtle hints of pressure on Kim. The fact is there is little for them to talk.
Make no mistake. Kim's move to announce moratorium on testing nuclear weapons and tear down some of the infrastructure related to those programmes may well turn out to be a hogwash. For those who think that this is a sign of goodwill, it must be told that this doesn't impact in any way the huge weapons complex the country has assembled in the last decades.
The American administration knows that debilitating Pyongyang's sprawling missile and nuclear arsenal will take one hell of an effort and years. There is simply no precedent in the history that any nation that has amassed such a huge stockpile of nukes has ever given it up. The logistics and economics just don't reconcile to the very idea of denuclearisation. Trump's avowed goal of a "verifiable and irreversible denuclearisation" is at best flimsy and fractured. The Americans got to live with North Korea's ability to target the US with nuclear weapons just as India has got to with Pakistan.
Any deal would most certainly call for inspection of nuke sites by international inspectors who may have to look at the herculean prospect of visiting an unspecified number if compliance is to be ensured. That is a tall order for any country with the honorable exception of Iraq. North Korea is a different league not just because of its dangerous acquisitions by an unpredictable and dangerous dictator but also because the country is so isolated from the rest of the mankind.
The Kim dispensation -- if it can be called that -- has relentlessly pursued its military goal to unleash a nuclear strike on US and its allies South Korea and Japan with an array of missiles and bombs. A series of Inter-Continental Ballistic Missile programmes has had the Americans and its East Asian allies in jitters for, the threat perception is too high for even their capabilities.
The Americans would be making a cardinal error if they perceive the North Korean moratorium as a parameter of their optimism. Any attempt to legitimize the North Korean capability by accepting the status quo as a situation to proceed for normalization of relations, knowing the country's track record of pursuing nuclear weapons program, would be fatuous.
The only indication that Americans are aware of this reality is Trump booking his return ticket the same day.
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| The shape of the good byes to come? |
That the high stakes one-on-one has been preceded by some tricky negotiations comes as no surprise. I am not too sure how the under-chandelier dinner Trump had with Singapore Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong can contribute to the easing of stand off between the the two traditional foes.
Not just Trump and Kim, the world knows that entente is next to impossible. Both are not known to climb off their high horse.The issue of denuclearisation and security guarantee, and the measures to be taken by both the countries are in the realms of utopia given the insecurity they face from each other. A nuclear armament is both a safeguard and a threat depending on one's perception. There is little to be optimistic for both Trump and Kim since it is not clear -- at least at this stage -- whether the Americans can succeed in extracting a more comprehensive commitment to disarming than North Korea has already offered.
Note that the White House has chosen to speak the same couched Pyongyang language of "seeking complete verifiable and irreversible denuclearisation on the Korean Peninsula. The North Koreans are not fools to be taken in by those apparently pompous words. They know it as potentially requiring the US to scale back troop deployment there or to shrink its nuclear umbrella over two East Asian allies South Korea and Japan. Little wonder, the meet is so terse that Trump doesn't feel the need to stay around longer, although that is also being interpreted as the US dropping subtle hints of pressure on Kim. The fact is there is little for them to talk.
Make no mistake. Kim's move to announce moratorium on testing nuclear weapons and tear down some of the infrastructure related to those programmes may well turn out to be a hogwash. For those who think that this is a sign of goodwill, it must be told that this doesn't impact in any way the huge weapons complex the country has assembled in the last decades.
The American administration knows that debilitating Pyongyang's sprawling missile and nuclear arsenal will take one hell of an effort and years. There is simply no precedent in the history that any nation that has amassed such a huge stockpile of nukes has ever given it up. The logistics and economics just don't reconcile to the very idea of denuclearisation. Trump's avowed goal of a "verifiable and irreversible denuclearisation" is at best flimsy and fractured. The Americans got to live with North Korea's ability to target the US with nuclear weapons just as India has got to with Pakistan.
Any deal would most certainly call for inspection of nuke sites by international inspectors who may have to look at the herculean prospect of visiting an unspecified number if compliance is to be ensured. That is a tall order for any country with the honorable exception of Iraq. North Korea is a different league not just because of its dangerous acquisitions by an unpredictable and dangerous dictator but also because the country is so isolated from the rest of the mankind.
The Kim dispensation -- if it can be called that -- has relentlessly pursued its military goal to unleash a nuclear strike on US and its allies South Korea and Japan with an array of missiles and bombs. A series of Inter-Continental Ballistic Missile programmes has had the Americans and its East Asian allies in jitters for, the threat perception is too high for even their capabilities.
The Americans would be making a cardinal error if they perceive the North Korean moratorium as a parameter of their optimism. Any attempt to legitimize the North Korean capability by accepting the status quo as a situation to proceed for normalization of relations, knowing the country's track record of pursuing nuclear weapons program, would be fatuous.
The only indication that Americans are aware of this reality is Trump booking his return ticket the same day.
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