Raju Korti
After glaring at their feisty and stubborn Communist nation for fifty long years, the Americans have finally blinked. US-Cuba relations have remained frozen since the early 1960s when the former severed diplomatic relations and clamped a trade embargo after Cuba's revolution.
It will be a little infantile at this stage to describe this unfolding as a thawing phase. Cuban President Raul Castro -- who took over from big brother Fidel Castro -- has conceded nothing and has in fact predicated that Havana would not change its political system. At the moment there are no clear indications from Washington on the diplomatic handle it might employ in bringing the Cubans around but a status quoist Castro has kept his countrymen's feet firmly on the ground asserting that unless the key issue of economic embargo was addressed, there was nothing more to read in the development than some symbolism.
In a calibrated response, Castro straddled his couched cynicism with a word of praise for President Obama for his deviant step in attempting to reverse decades of hostilities between the two countries. By confirming that he would attend the summit of the Americas in Panama, he potentially paved the way for a face-to-face meeting with the US President -- a prospect unimaginable until a year ago.
Having experimented with Socialism better than China and Russia, Castro will not compromise on Socialist principles. "In the same way that we have never demanded that the United States change its political system, we will demand respect for ours," Castro stated, even as he patted himself on the back for standing up to the "long and difficult struggle" brought about by the economic sanctions.
As an inimical neighbor, who understands America better than Castro? Through decades, the Cubans have watched American foreign policy chameleon though contradictions and convenience. Seen through that prism, the Cubans are going to take a lot of convincing that Obama has gone beyond political rhetoric that "Washington's approach towards its neighbor was outdated."
The moves by the White House to review the designation of Cuba as state sponsor of terrorism and promise to initiate efforts to life 54-year old embargo cannot be entirely dismissed as expedient politics, although one can surmise what brings about this sudden change of heart. The US couldn't care less whether Cuba reverts to Capitalism from Socialism. One suspects, and not without reason, that this meltdown is the pre-eminent concern about Putin angling to revive Russia-Cuba friendship that would render the American embargo redundant. Back home, demographics do not favor the perpetuation of a policy that young Americans feel has outlived its utility. The striking irony is the prospect of the Russian-Cuban proximity raises the same specter of Cold War that Obama quoted in the context of domestic compulsions.
According to a US Census Bureau data, there are 1.8 million Cuban Americans living in US and over 80% of them are potential voters. Demography also matters for understanding the timing of such a move from the Cuban perspective. For example, Cuban leadership will soon get younger. The Castros are octogenarians and President Raúl Castro had declared that he would step down when his term ends in 2018. The Castros therefore needed a plan to hand power off to a new generation.
In any case the ball is in Obama's court. He is sure to meet with some stiff opposition from own Congressmen, some of whom are already threatening to block the normalization of ties thanks to the unpleasant history that loom large especially the fact that Fidel Castro and his guerilla army defeated the US-backed Cuban government of Fulgencio Batista and then rubbed salt on the injury by nationalizing US business without compensation.
There are of course many factors at play in US-Cuba relations, but for both countries demographic exigencies have thrown open incentives for a historic correction.
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| A file grab of Late Fidel Castro in his younger days |
It will be a little infantile at this stage to describe this unfolding as a thawing phase. Cuban President Raul Castro -- who took over from big brother Fidel Castro -- has conceded nothing and has in fact predicated that Havana would not change its political system. At the moment there are no clear indications from Washington on the diplomatic handle it might employ in bringing the Cubans around but a status quoist Castro has kept his countrymen's feet firmly on the ground asserting that unless the key issue of economic embargo was addressed, there was nothing more to read in the development than some symbolism.
In a calibrated response, Castro straddled his couched cynicism with a word of praise for President Obama for his deviant step in attempting to reverse decades of hostilities between the two countries. By confirming that he would attend the summit of the Americas in Panama, he potentially paved the way for a face-to-face meeting with the US President -- a prospect unimaginable until a year ago.
Having experimented with Socialism better than China and Russia, Castro will not compromise on Socialist principles. "In the same way that we have never demanded that the United States change its political system, we will demand respect for ours," Castro stated, even as he patted himself on the back for standing up to the "long and difficult struggle" brought about by the economic sanctions.
As an inimical neighbor, who understands America better than Castro? Through decades, the Cubans have watched American foreign policy chameleon though contradictions and convenience. Seen through that prism, the Cubans are going to take a lot of convincing that Obama has gone beyond political rhetoric that "Washington's approach towards its neighbor was outdated."
The moves by the White House to review the designation of Cuba as state sponsor of terrorism and promise to initiate efforts to life 54-year old embargo cannot be entirely dismissed as expedient politics, although one can surmise what brings about this sudden change of heart. The US couldn't care less whether Cuba reverts to Capitalism from Socialism. One suspects, and not without reason, that this meltdown is the pre-eminent concern about Putin angling to revive Russia-Cuba friendship that would render the American embargo redundant. Back home, demographics do not favor the perpetuation of a policy that young Americans feel has outlived its utility. The striking irony is the prospect of the Russian-Cuban proximity raises the same specter of Cold War that Obama quoted in the context of domestic compulsions.
According to a US Census Bureau data, there are 1.8 million Cuban Americans living in US and over 80% of them are potential voters. Demography also matters for understanding the timing of such a move from the Cuban perspective. For example, Cuban leadership will soon get younger. The Castros are octogenarians and President Raúl Castro had declared that he would step down when his term ends in 2018. The Castros therefore needed a plan to hand power off to a new generation.
In any case the ball is in Obama's court. He is sure to meet with some stiff opposition from own Congressmen, some of whom are already threatening to block the normalization of ties thanks to the unpleasant history that loom large especially the fact that Fidel Castro and his guerilla army defeated the US-backed Cuban government of Fulgencio Batista and then rubbed salt on the injury by nationalizing US business without compensation.
There are of course many factors at play in US-Cuba relations, but for both countries demographic exigencies have thrown open incentives for a historic correction.
raju garu,
ReplyDeletea nice commentary on the U.S. / Cuba relationship and how down the years, the yankees have not changed a wee bit.
Cuba is a hard nut and cannot be arm twisted into agreeing to anything, with Russia supporting it, a waste of an exercise to even try to bring this Cigar nation to their ideas.
1.8 million Cuban Americans living in U.S. of A.
sanctions have to be lifted if the americans want to see a change in the cuban regime's thought process.
too much of grass has grown for too long a period for things to change now.
warm regards,
rnk - :) :) :)