Close to self-destruction!

Pic for only representational purpose.

Raju Korti
The increasing sectarian violence in Iraq, signaling the return of insurgency is a clear indication that the strife-torn country is headed to a point of no return -- with or without the US of A.
The embers of the post-Saddam regime refuse to die down looking to the vicious battle between the radicals, the ISIS and the Iraqi government. The ISIS is an offshoot of the global terror network of the al Qaeda that fought with the Syrian regime late last year. After the infighting, it reinvented itself as a splinter group called Levant ISIS (Islamic State of Iraq and Syria).
The imploding situation in Iraq is much more complex than the popular perception that a proxy war is being played out on the uneasy turf between the country's Sunni Muslim minority and the Shia majority. The pitch is queered by the presence of Sunnis on either side of the hostility, some preferring to be neutral. There are several insurgent groups that do not swear allegiance to the ISIS and the Kurds -- basically non-Arab Sunni Muslims -- who enjoy some kind of an autonomy in the north-eastern fringes. While Sunnis and Shias slug it out, it is the Kurds who might actually gain mileage from the ongoing conflict.
The Sunnis, as is the case elsewhere in the world, have different grievances some of which are genuine and some not so. The Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri-al-Maliki is being perceived as disproportionately unkind to the Sunnis -- to the extent that the latter are being persecuted and hounded. There is no transparency in the prosecution.
Reports emanating from the country say that to counter "rising insurgency", the government rode roughshod to arrest a large number of people. The trials, if at all they were held, were suspect and nobody knows what happened to the under-trials. Cases of Iraqis languishing in prisons for years without a trial are common. Sometimes they're tortured; sometimes people, especially Sunnis, have to pay ransoms to get their family members out of prisons even if they didn't do anything wrong. And all this at the cost of a Shia nexus.
The Sunnis haven't exactly helped the cause with their patently flawed perception that they are a demographic majority. They have carried forward this considered view which was popularized during the Saddam rule -- that Sunni Arabs are the plurality and Sunni Arabs plus Kurds are a majority.
The issue boils down to a lopsided balance between the "suffering" Sunnis and "persecuting" Shias an offshoot of which is the de-Baathification (read de-Saddamisation) of the government being taken too far.
Among the three major players -- the insurgents, those inclined to political process and those who propose political process but are aligned with the incumbent PM -- the majority Sunnis at the grassroots level believe in a political process. These are countered by those willing for the ballot but not opposed to insurgency either. The ISIS is the extreme radical while there is another group that swears by Saddam and is itching to install a Jihadist Caliphate run by a centralized Sunni dictatorship. Although not in majority, it is the battle-scarred ISIS, having spent years fighting in Iraq and Syria, that is muddying the waters.
The insurgents can hope to win only if they get the Shias to cede. The mainstream Sunnis are a divided house as against a motivated Shias but that still doesn't mean the latter can exterminate the rebellion. It is a checks and balances scene. Even if the Sunnis get to establish control in some regions by ousting the Shias, those won't be the ones to give them any advantage -- financially or geographically. Most of the oil is in the Kurdish controlled area.
The irony is a Sunni state, if it ever becomes a possibility, would only be looking at starvation with practically no economy. A win-lose situation! On the other hand, the present crisis is a godsend for the Kurds. They can extract their pound of flesh from Baghdad or alternately they could declare independence. A win-win situation!
While the Iraqi PM is himself on a uncertain pitch, the Shias, in all probability, will indulge in a massive exercise of sectarian cleansing and that's a bad augury for the Sunnis. The Kurds will benefit, Iran will benefit, and the Shias will suffer but not as much. The Sunnis have a Hobson's choice -- either get cleansed or survive and hurtle into socio-economic doom.
Strange bedfellows have emerged from this conflict. So desperate is the situation that old and arch enemies Washington and Tehran are mulling to deal with the violent sweep.