Trump’s tariff tantrums: Where the shoe pinches US!

Raju Korti
Every few years, America finds itself needing an external target to nurse internal discontent. The playbook is familiar: identify a trading partner, accuse them of unfairness, issue dramatic threats, and hope it rallies domestic sentiment. This time, the wheel of blame has landed on India. And not because India is the biggest offender on trade -- it’s not -- but because in Trump's version of economic theatre, optics always trump facts.

Let’s take a closer look. The US trade deficit with India stands at around USD 41 billion. Significant? Yes. But compare that to the USD 270 billion with China or USD 113 billion with Vietnam. In sheer numbers, India is not even in the top tier of Washington’s trade worries. Yet, Trump has singled India out for punishment—a 25% blanket tariff on all goods, plus a "penalty" for buying Russian military hardware and crude oil. The reason? Alleged “obnoxious non-monetary trade barriers” and India's growing tilt toward Russia. It is worth noting that these barriers have existed for decades and are common across many emerging economies.

So, why now? In my estimate, Trump’s timing is not incidental. With elections on the horizon, his strategy is textbook populism: revive America’s victim narrative in trade, attack India’s “high tariffs,” and spotlight India’s oil deals with Russia -- never mind that the US itself buys Russian commodities through indirect routes. He even brought Pakistan into the mix, touting a vague oil exploration deal with Islamabad and hinting -- almost childishly -- that maybe Pakistan would sell oil to India “some day.” A not-so-subtle jab.

What makes this especially troubling is the way the Trump administration has begun lumping India with America's adversaries. By associating India’s BRICS membership with anti-US intent, or calling India and Russia’s economies “dead,” Trump is attempting to recast India as an unreliable friend. This contradicts his own words, where he calls India “a friend,” showing the cognitive dissonance that often underpins Trump’s foreign policy narrative.

Enter Kaushik Basu, former World Bank Chief Economist, who offers a clearer diagnosis. He points out the irony of Trump labelling India a “big abuser” while ignoring much larger trade gaps with other countries. Basu warns that India’s compliance with such US pressure, especially in agriculture and dairy, could devastate an already fragile farm economy. If India bends to Washington’s terms, it risks selling out its rural base -- a move that could trigger political and economic backlash at home.

So, what does India do? First, don’t panic. History shows that Trump’s policy bark often has less bite than feared. Many of his trade threats are negotiating tactics meant to extract short-term concessions. Second, India must hold its ground on core issues like agricultural protections and strategic autonomy, particularly in its defence partnerships. Any hasty agreement with the US under duress may bring momentary calm but long-term vulnerability.

Finally, India must rediscover its independent foreign policy voice. In recent years, its alignment with the US has grown tighter -- sometimes at the cost of its non-aligned legacy. That perception, Basu says, has emboldened the US to take India for granted. A calibrated recalibration -- not confrontation -- with Washington is needed. India must show that friendship does not mean blind obedience.

For the United States, the real issue isn’t India’s trade policy or oil purchases. The issue is waning American economic dominance and the rise of multi-polarity, where countries like India want to chart their own course. Trump’s tariffs, if anything, reflect that unease. The more he presses, the more the world sees through the showmanship. In trying to make America great again, he may be making global goodwill toward America weaker again.

Because when economics becomes theatre, facts are the first casualties -- and friends, the collateral damage.