Monday, September 3, 2018

The politics of American aid to Pakistan

Raju Korti
If the past is anything to go by, the issue of American aid to Pakistan is an unending conundrum. I say this with a certain degree of authority because the US' relationship with Pakistan has always been a transactional one marked by mutual mistrust, marriages of convenience and mood swings.
The American administration has been providing economic and military aid to Pakistan right since 1947 but somehow this roller coaster ride has smoothed out in the end. It is therefore with some trepidation that I wonder about their decision to scrap USD 300 million aid to Pakistan on the assertion that the latter has not shown any intent in support of its strategy in the region. The US aid to Pakistan has a long political history and this is not the first time that money has been withheld.
With Pakistan the Americans have always been confronted with a damned-if-you-do-damned-if-you-don't situation. From the days of Reagan and Bush, for reasons justifiable or not, the politics of American aid to Pakistan has made bigger headlines than its nitty gritty. Understandably, the decision to scrap aid comes after President Trump made it clear earlier this year that he would suspend nearly all security aid to Pakistan -- an across-the-board freeze that is the most tangible sign yet of Washington's frustration with the country's refusal to crack down on terrorist networks.
The move underlines how swiftly relations with Pakistan have deteriorated since Trump took office. However, it also echoes several previous rifts between the countries over Pakistan's role as sanctuary for extremist Jihadi groups -- a role that has poisoned Islamabad's relations with Washington since that attack of September 2001. It might be tempting to draw an assertive conclusion at this juncture because there is a catch that dilutes this hard line as it has done for decades. The US administration points out that this freeze is temporary and could be lifted if Pakistan changes its behavior. History has established that Pakistan has neither changed nor does it show any such inclination.
Pakistan receives foreign aid from many countries and international organizations. Since the start of Afghanistan war majority aid has come from now-ally-now enemy United States through the Coalition Support Fund. This fund is justified as reimbursement to Pakistan for counter-terrorism operations. Between 1948 and 2016, the US obligated nearly $ 80 billion to Pakistan. While it has stopped foreign aid this year, it continues to mull the idea of funding its so called anti-terror operations. Pakistan has also taken substantial loans from the International Monetary Fund. What Pakistan does with this aid remains mired in mystery although it is believed that this money is spent on acquiring arms, funding terrorists and institutional corruption.
Pakistan, however, lives in a perpetual denial mode. Given the country's track record there is understandable skepticism whether the new prime minister Imran Khan will be able to change things. In one of my earlier blogs I had written that the euphoria over an elected government in Pakistan evaporates in no time. On a different turf altogether, Khan's talk of building a new Pakistan will end up as another regulation speech. The damage has already been done. Pakistan's continued support for resurgent militant groups hostile to the US, coupled with warming US military and business relations with India is sharply diminishing Islamabad's strategic importance as an ally to Washington.
India has displayed uncharacteristic diplomacy by not jumping the gun on US scrapping aid when it has always accused Pakistan of harboring, training and infiltrating terrorists in Kashmir and elsewhere. There are enough cross currents as it is. The Pakistanis have a totally different perception. They generally believe that this is America's war and not a global or Pakistani war while in some US quarters, it is argued that it would be dangerous to allow relations with Pakistan to deteriorate further. Its Catch 22 situation though. The unvarnished truth is a prosperous Pakistan is as dangerous as a failed Pakistan -- fact Americans know but won't acknowledge. 

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